Poker?

Hell I don't even know her!

I promise I'm almost out of bad and somewhat sexist poker double entendres.

Ok. Now I have a blog. So what? The hard part is finding anything vaguely interesting to say. There are many, many poker blogs out there, and they are often written by slightly scary individuals who can calculate -EV whilst taking a dump and re-compiling the 'C' code they whipped up to modify Poker Tracker's source code to more clearly bring to the fore the huge gaping holes in the games of guys like me.

So that's not me. I try to get better with my game every day. I think my game improves regularly and consistently. But the bell curve between each successive tier of achievement is steep, and the gaps between are dark and chasm-filled, with lots of dudes lurking to take the meager shekels I have managed to compile.

So the purpose of my blog will be to represent the good-but-not-great players out there. Over the years, I have obsessively worked my way through the various 'cool' casino games - craps>blackjack>poker. I still routinely earn back my poker losses in the B&M's by playing craps. Start w/ $100, and if you lose it leave. Twice now in the last year (one @ Mandalay Bay, once @ the Grand Casino in Tunica) I've won a lot (at least a lot to me) at craps - $4k and $2k, starting with $100 after getting shelled (for me that's a couple of hundred bucks) at the poker tables.

With each progressive game, I go through a series of steps. I suppose that its a fundamental learning process. Here's how I learned both craps and blackjack:

1) Watched friends play
2) Learned the basic rules
3) Learned the full ruleset
4) Mastered the nuances
5) Internalized the odds/vig associated with each bet
6) Concentrate on reducing the house edge to as small of a margin as possible
7) Try to see if there's a way to turn those odds in your favor
8) Master 'system' to allow this to happen
9) Win mucho dinero

With craps you can really only take this process through #6, b/c after all, dice have no memory. I bought and internalized several 'system' books for craps, and all they did is ultimately cost me money. Martingales, the Captain's 'Super System', etc. But, just by taking things up to Step 6, the quality of my craps play went up exponentially. I know not to bet the middle, how to reduce the house edge down to under 1%, manage my bankroll so I won't get wiped out in one bad shooter, maximize my winnings by aggressively recognizing opportunities once playing with the casino's money, etc.

Fastforward to Blackjack. You can take BJ up to Step 8. Althought I would argue that Step 8 is often a two-parter, and follows the fundamental 80/20 rule. Part I for Blackjack is learning perfect Basic Strategy, tweaked for your particular game. There are lots of internet sites which will generate this based on # of decks, surrender rules, etc. I seem to remember that playing perfect Basic Strategy will get the vig down to < 1-1.5% depending on the game. Part II for Blackjack is learning to count cards. At the end of the day, counting cards well (notice the emphasis) takes the last 80% of effort, and can give you a small edge. But, with the scrutiny by casinos, concentration it requires, and the fact that even counting cards doesn't guarantee success, I would argue the return is marginal. Especially for the casual player (of which I am). I watched a former colleague, and excellent card counter, lose $5k in a 3-day sales meeting in Vegas. I know how to count cards, and can do it when sober and very alert. But, again, it is best served for the daily warrior, who goes to battle several times a week for a living and is willing to grind it out. For the average player, like me, who is in a casino 5 times or so a year, often while on vacation, I posit that the return isn't worth the potential risk. Finally, counting cards seems to give many players this 'I can't lose' mindset, which is very, very dangerous.

I'll try to tie all this back to poker with my next post.